That’s one of my favorite quotes from Mark Stein.  Being a guy who appreciates numbers and, ahem, predictability, demography is a great resource for my elaborate predictions.  Here is where I use it to see one aspect of the future:

In the early days of the Republic, industrialization and related immigration to the North gave Northern interests a representation advantage. Now, decades of low birth rates in Progressive states, emigration away from failed Progressive policies, and Hispanic immigration to the southern belt of states has reversed this distribution of electoral power. Today, Conservative states hold all the cards. Elections are fought on Conservative ground. This will make it more difficult for Progressive agenda on every level. For instance, in the case of the Presidency, the projected new apportionment http://www.polidata.org/census/st009dca.pdf would mean that Bush could have lost Ohio in 2004 and still won the election. Furthermore, do not forgot that Republicans have historically controlled the presidency, about two thirds of the time since the founding of the party. Even in the middle of the 20th century, the “golden age” for Democrats, their hold on the presidency was weak. This fact of American politics has its roots in the Civil War. Ever since then, Republicans have been the party of national security. Since national security is the main responsibility of the President, this has given Republicans an advantage in Presidential politics. On the Congressional level, more seats in Conservative states means more seats drawn by Conservative state governments. While I don’t support gerrymandering, it is an old fact of American politics and it is likely to help Republicans.

Advertisements